Closing Time: Mark Melancon's missing velocity

For a solid 20 years, the Pirates didn’t have to evaluate their bullpen situation with any great deal of urgency. The Bucs downshifted into non-contender mode after the 1992 season (not coincidentally, when Barry Bonds left town), and Pittsburgh didn’t see a single winning club from 1993 to 2012. When you’re not a threat for the playoffs, every situation takes on a little less gravity. Smart brushfires don’t turn into ten-alarm calls.

Ah, but the 2015 Pirates are different. The Men of Clint Hurdle are coming off two straight playoff appearances, and they’re expected to contend again this year. So when their closer goes off the rails, even in a smaller sample, it’s something we have to take seriously.

Mark Melancon, you’re on the hot seat.

The Pirates closer suffered his first blown save of the year in Tuesday’s 9-8 loss to the Cubs, giving up three hits, two walks and three runs over a messy ninth inning. It’s the second three-run hiccup for Melancon, who now sports an 8.53 ERA. Batters swung and missed at his pitches 13.7 percent of the time last year; in the short sample of 2015, that number has tumbled to 7.6 percent. 

It’s important to look at the process over the results, and that’s really the crux of the problem. Melancon’s velocity has fallen off a cliff thus far in 2015. His fastball is down almost five mph, and his cutter and curve have dropped a couple of ticks on the gun. The Pirates insist Melancon isn’t hurt, for what that means, but something seems wrong. 

Pittsburgh has one of the best pitching coaches in the business - take a bow, Ray Searage - so if there’s any team that can get this fixed in short order, it’s the Bucs. But what if Melancon’s velocity drop is tied to a physical issue? We need to do our full diligence here, take a look around the bullpen. 

Lefty Tony Watson has been a key bullpen deputy for the last few years, posting superb ratios. He collected 10 sneaky wins last year, a couple of leftover saves, along with a 1.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He’s the type of reliever you can roster simply for the quality innings. He hasn’t been terrific through his first nine innings this year (4 R, 2 HR), but then you see nine strikeouts against zero walks and you feel better. 

Of course, you know a lot of teams really don’t want to close with a southpaw. 

Tall right-hander Jared Hughes is coming off a 1.96/1.09 season of his own, though it was a pitch-to-contact special (19 BB, 36 K) that makes you suspicious. Arquimedes Caminero has a fastball in the mid-to-high 90s, if you want to see the radar gun pop, but he hasn't been anything special to this point. 

If I had to speculate on a non-Melancon option here, Watson’s my play. The velocity drop makes me nervous. And while smarter teams tend to be patient with most of their early slumpers, if there’s one position where the rules don’t completely apply, it’s at closer. Whatever gets you through the night.

There’s your first CT story on this fine Wednesday; we’ll have more bulletry shortly. 

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